A Billboard Debut #1 Song is not a rare achievement today?
READING TIME: 20 mins
INTRODUCTION
WAP recently continued a historic mark on the Billboard Hot 100 as Nielsen Soundscan, the company who measures the most consumed songs within the United States in a given week, confirmed there have now been 8 single releases debut at the top of the chart within a 12 month span (since October 2019). Ever since Billboard’s conception back in 1958 it was rare for songs to even debut within the Top 10 most popular songs of the week and achieved by none other than The Beatles. Whereas nowadays there seems to be songs regularly shooting for the top spots every single week. Therefore it would be interesting to go through time and analyse the factors which have led to songs specifically debuting at number one and bring about the context for why this once incredible feat has now become more commonplace.
In the United States the most consistent methods of music consumption, be it active or passive, has been radio airplay and pure sales. However, with piracy and a decline in active consumption of music purchases, and a meteoric rise in streaming platforms such as Spotify, Apple Music and Youtube the 2010s saw more consumption coming from streaming. For comparison US music market composition in 2010 according to the RIAA was 52% physical, 38% digital downloads, 7% streaming and 3% synching. Whereas at the end of the decade in 2019, music consumption was 80% streaming, 9% physical, 9% digital downloads and 3% synch (@chartdata and @RIAA). As a result Billboard and Nielsen have come to agreements to continuously change the weighting of streaming and sales within the formula to determine the most organically consumed songs in the United States.
Living in the UK where radio is not a factor to determine the charts here, the Billboard Hot 100 now feels more reminiscent of the UK Official Charts before streaming was incorporated. At this time the charts were more volatile with song placements shooting for the top spots regularly whereas the United States usually required songs to build up in order to do the same thing. However, as mentioned above, this volatility and lack of stability seems to be a a more common observation nowadays so it will be interesting to see how charts which measure music consumption may be adjusted in the future so that labels are not manipulating loopholes of tallying methods. For instance, labels realise the power of PR and future investment if an artist on their label has achieved this once unique achievement since Billboard is merely a label’s marketing playground. After the release of ‘Trollz’, a 2020 song by 6ix9ine and Nicki Minaj, it became the first debut #1 single to drop out of the Hot 100 within a month. The single grabbed hold of the top spot by taking advantage of the bundles tactic where labels would bundle the release of a digital single with a copy of a physical vinyl/merchandise. Whilst this would indicate another unit has been purchased, the latter product would not get shipped to the consumer until many weeks later. Therefore Billboard and Nielsen revised their methodology to discontinue this malpractice of incorporating bundles from August 2020 so that only units which are consumed and shipped to the consumer within the same week are counted.
The most common reasons for why debut songs reach their position seem to be a ‘musical comeback’ where a recording artist makes a return to the music scene after a period of previous commercial success or an event circulating the personal life of an artist then becomes the hot topic surrounding their musical release. As always there are some exceptions to this rule and all of these reasons will all be discussed.
BACKGROUND
Period 1 (1995-1998)
Figure A (from left to right): You Are Not Alone, Michael Jackson. Fantasy, Mariah Carey. Exhale (Shoop Shoop), Whitney Houston. One Sweet Day, Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men. I’ll Be Missing You, P Diddy, 112 & Faith Evans. Honey, Mariah Carey. Candle In The Wind, Elton John. My Heart Will Go On, Celine Dion. I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing, Aerosmith. Doo Wop (That Thing), Lauryn Hill.
Before 1995, The Beatles held the record for the highest song to debut in 1970. Following that singles rarely debuted high and required a climb to the top which showcased that songs gained popularity through a gradual increase in radio callouts and increased demands for physical copies. After the introduction of Nielsen Soundscan and Broadcast Data systems in 1991 this electronic recording system provided a more accurate measurement of singles unit consumption compared to ringing up retailers. By 1995 labels realised that if they build up radio airplay and hold off the release of the physical single, as both components were required in order to realise a charting position, then at the song’s radio peak eventually the single’s physical release would shoot the song into the top spots. Holding off a song was also a method to build up anticipation to surge an artist’s sales. Singles were often discounted a number of weeks later, depending on the format, which also allowed continuous singles unit consumption. At the time this did not impact labels financially as they were still more dependent on album sales which were more profitable.
Thus 'You Are Not Alone’ by Michael Jackson became the first single to debut at the top spot back in 1995, after his lead single of the same album debuted at #5 a few months earlier. Despite the song getting knocked off after one week it still remained in the Top 5 for another 2 months showing that the single was fortunately still in demand for purchase. Mariah Carey and Whitney Houston also debuted at the top spot that same year with their singles ‘Fantasy’, ‘Exhale’ and ‘One Sweet Day’ after returning from the Music Box and Bodyguard Eras which were immense commercial successes brimmed with three Top 5 singles each and more than 8 and 15 million US album copies sold, respectively. One Sweet Day also benefitted from the Christmas freeze, where labels are rarely willing to release a single as Christmas music usually becomes the most consumed product, as a collaboration single release from hugely popular 90s artists Mariah and Boyz II Men - it stood out. A rare feat was achieved on the week of December 2nd 1995 where the top 3 most popular singles of the week were all previous or current debut #1 singles and this would not be achieved again until May 19th 2018 when ‘This Is America’, ‘Nice For What’ and ‘God’s Plan’ replicated this feat (ironically again held by only two lead artists if counting only Mariah for One Sweet Day).
Industry experts were also witnessing that the biggest artists could spend 16 weeks at the top compared to years earlier where a single might spend 16 weeks within the Top 40. Therefore the market became much more competitive from a singles perspective and a label and their artist had to earn their place to reside within the top spots of the chart. With time retail single releases began to decline and the public’s consumption activities showed they favoured the purchase of a full album over a single. Labels and retailers also began to recognise their profit margins were not stable enough with discounting singles sales. With a weakening singles market, singles from 1999 released only to airplay were then eligible to chart on the Hot 100. As radio is a less volatile method of consumption, songs had to build up in order to reach the top spots and no more songs after Lauryn Hill’s ‘Doo Wop’ debuted at the top.
In typical US 90s fashion the most common themes the singles revolved around was dealing with the death of a loved one or typically expressing romantic discourse with the protagonist’s prospective partner. For example in 1997 ‘I’ll Be Missing You’ and ‘Candle In the Wind’ made debuts at the top after the passing of East Coast rapper The Notorious Big and Lady Diana, respectively. Also it appears that most artists making top spot debut during this period were those reserved for top billing artists - those which labels knew would be able to continuously sell singles, as well as albums, which made the record even more special.
Period 2 (2003-2006)
Figure B (from left to right): This Is The Night, Clay Aiken. I Believe, Fantasia. Inside Your Heaven, Carrie Underwood. Do I Make You Proud, Taylor Hicks.
From 1999 to 2002 the US singles market was extremely weak. The music market was declining because of a decrease in physical consumption after an economic slump and the rise of piracy through Napster. With albums being the priority as they were higher sources of income, most singles that charted on the Hot 100 were the result of successful built-up radio airplay. The only songs during this period that made a debut #1 appearance were American Idol winner singles. The winners were under much pressure to perform well as the UK’s equivalent Pop Idol winners’ debut singles were shifting large units on the weeks of their release. For example Will Young sold 1.2 million copies in his debut single’s first week in the UK. With radio and singles still in relatively equal measures, a huge single release could propel a single to the top via the singles component and this is what occurred from 2003 to 2006. From 2004-2005 winners were also aided by also releasing their songs on iTunes so the singles benefitted from a physical and digital release. From 2007 Idol winners required stronger sales in digital singles to debut atop as they were entering a new and competitive singles market compared to previous winners. Although it was less influential in the purchasing decision these songs revolved around themes of struggling, accomplishments and hope which can resonate well with the US consumer.
Period 3 (2009-2012)
Figure C (from left to right): 3, Britney Spears. Not Afraid, Eminem. We R Who We R, Ke$ha. Hold It Against Me, Britney Spears. Born This Way, Lady Gaga. Part of Me, Katy Perry.
During this era singles were mostly released on iTunes as opposed to having a physical retail release. The singles market was showing promise through plentiful high debuts throughout 2007 to 2009. Some of the biggest hits were either debuting in the Top 5 positions or they would debut via radio airplay in the 80s-90s and perform high chart movements occupying the top spot within a few weeks. Similar to the 90s era, labels would hold back on the digital release to build anticipation in the hope for a surge in sales. An important observation is that following the 2008 recession, single sales were climbing and becoming more important to an artist’s discography release strategy whilst album sales had for the first time declined dramatically. This could be the result of singles being cheaper than albums during a time when the economy was not in the greatest condition for a consumer to invest in a more expensive product, as well as consumers potentially realising that purchasing an album is less worthwhile (if containing a lot of unnecessary filler) if the opportunity to purchase a single from the comfort of their home is an alternative solution. The artists who achieved the debut #1 feat during this era were those who were at the peak of their commercial career such as Lady Gaga or they were highly anticipated recording artists making a return to the music scene such as Eminem or Britney Spears; unlike previous periods the genre material or lyrical content seemed to not matter as much. In fact the former two probably achieved the feat as they were both transitioning from an era of displaying spectacular US album debuts in the early 2000s to delivering spectacular US single debuts in the early 2010s and regardless of the musical medium, they would still be a commercial success.
Period 4 (2013-2016)
Figure D (from left to right): Harlem Shake, Baeur, Shake It Off, Taylor Swift. What Do You Mean, Justin Bieber. Hello, Adele. Pillowtalk, Zayn Malik.
In 2013, the Harlem Shake was a cultural phenomenon which reshuffled the Hot 100 chart policy forever. Aided by Gangnam Style in the year before, the song showcased the increased power and influence the consumer possessed over a song’s success and showed how much over the label they can predict a hit song and future musical trends. At this point Billboard incorporated streaming into the Hot 100 formula for the first time and never turned back. Whilst the timing was coincidental as streaming and Youtube was on the rise anyways, the song prompted industry leaders to support streaming from thereon. With an unprecedented 103 million streams within a single week, there was no turning back knowing that Youtube streaming data would be on the rise as well as tracking sales (digital and physical) and radio airplay. The song also revamped on-demand streaming and online radio streaming which would also be incorporated, being tracked by Nielsen BDS. Interestingly, the Harlem Shake song came from an independent label and thus registered low points in airplay - this may have been a scare for the power of the US radio corporations who may have thought their power to the consumer was becoming diminished
Streaming early on was a threat to the business model of some of the largest digital era artists as it rewarded lower profit margins to its artists and songwriters and prolific ones such as Taylor Swift were very protective of their songwriting royalties. Nevertheless top billing artist's teams were meticulous with their release strategies and embraced streaming as part of their plan but like the 90s required high single release weeks after high anticipation and high built up radio-airplay. In this transition era all the artists fortunate to come from the some of the biggest eras of their careers (Red, Believe and 21) or was in high anticipation for their debut release after disbanding from a hugely popular group (Zayn Malik). This period indicated that debut #1 singles had again bounced back to being reserved for the top billing artists in the industry.
Period 5 (2016-2019)
Figure E (from left to right): Can’t Stop The Feeling, Justin Timberlake. Shape Of You, Ed Sheeran. I’m The One, DJ Khaled, Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper & Lil Wayne. God’s Plan, Drake. Nice For What, Drake. This is America, Childish Gambino. Thank U, Next, Ariana Grande. 7 Rings, Ariana Grande. Sucker, The Jonas Brothers.
The music landscape vastly changed with consumers choosing to stream more than any other method of consumption and streaming was where the industry’s highest revenue of music was coming from. It was clearly stated that 150 streams would be equivalent to 1 pure sale based on the membership fee streaming platforms provided to their customers. Nielsen and Billboard also dedicated more weighting to streaming in the Hot 100 formula as they recognised the number of subscriptions and listeners kept increasing annually and they realised there was more activity on these platforms than any other area in the industry. To demonstrate this trajectory Ben Sisario from The New York Times in 2018 had said "Nielsen reported that for the first half of the year, American listeners streamed 268 billion tracks a 45 percent increase from the same period the year before”, and this number keeps increasing each year.
With the explosion of platforms from Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, Pandora, Youtube etc there needed to be a fair way to measure streams. To reflect a ’true’ representation of songs that were being directly consumed streams were eventually categorised to dilute a stream using a premium subscription as the base. This policy penalised albums that performed better on free platforms. For example, an ad-supported subscription, which was free to the user but aided via advertisements so artists get paid, or a programmed stream, would be worth 2/3 or 1/3 of a stream from a paid subscription user, respectively. Also Youtube user-generated clips that utilise authorised audio from a song also counted in addition to official videos from an artist’s channel, which in some ways skews how much power an artist and label has over controlling the way their music is released. Finally there was a minimum listening time rule implemented where songs needed to be listened to at least 30 seconds in order to count for a stream. This was put in place to override consumers (in particular ’stans’) who were aiming to artificially increase an artist’s streams.
In regards to the singles specifically, since 2015 the once a year phenomena of a debut #1 was no more. There was at least two to four songs a year achieving the feat, most likely attributable to the power of streaming. Streaming helped show more clearly the patterns of how music was being consumed (aided by play-listing) or Nielsen was at least getting a closer 'exact' measurement of how popular a song was at the time. These songs were discretely pop or hip-hop orientated and the songs which blended these genres tended to be long-lasting hits such as ‘God’s Plan’ or ‘7 Rings’. If combined with a controversial video for example displaying political and racial instability such as in 'This is America' or providing a throwback to noughties American chick-flicks after the death of an ex-lover such as in 'Thank U, Next’, this extra ingredient helped provide extra Youtube views to secure the top spot.
It was also reported in 2019 that the radio portion of the Hot 100 weighting for debut hits was built up by the significant aid of radio deals. This was most apparent during a new Drake or Ariana single release. it was reported that radio deals were struck between labels and stations so that the artist’s most recent hits were also in rotation with the new single, to hopefully increase consumption for the new song.
Period 6 (2019-2020)
Figure F (from left to right): Highest in the Room, Travis Scott. Toosie Slide, Drake. The Scotts, The Scotts, Kid Cudi. Stuck With You, Justin Bieber & Ariana Grande. Rain on Me, Lady Gaga & Ariana Grande. Trollz, 6ix9ine & Nicki Minaj.
This most recent era seemed to showcase the most manipulated era of debut #1 singles. Previously, reading that a #1 debut occurred was rare and more reserved for established artists such as Mariah Carey, Ed Sheeran and Ariana Grande. Nowadays it seems less established artists have been able to achieve the feat too, from 6ix9ine to Kid Cudi, as most of the songs now tend to be collaborations with a top billing artist; this denotes a distinctive difference compared to most previous releases which came from standalone artists. Unfortunately, most of these songs also seem to also be dropping out of the top spots much faster than in their predecessor eras and debut #1s were consecutively hitting the top spot on a weekly basis thus becoming more of a norm. In fact between April 18th and August 22nd 2020 (19 weeks), there have been 7 singles which have debuted at the top.
With less of a demand in pure sales than ever before and a more competitive market in streaming, artists also required other unique methods to increase the popularity of their songs. Therefore songs began to become incorporated into gaming via Fortnite, on the new music-app Tik Tok or using bundles with merchandising, all of these methods became tactics to artificially inflate a song’s consumption. It seems that the means to the end for these songs demonstrate that debut #1s are becoming less impactful and diminishing the achievement of owning a debut #1 song. Also, with so many tactics being used in the first week of a song’s release it is difficult to ascertain what other tactics an artist may be able to utilise to have a long lasting song on the charts. Polarising songs with mixed reception such as 'Highest in the Room' and ‘Trollz' may have proven difficult to obtain radio’s support which is the component required for a song to become stable for a long time after its release.
To highlight how severe the bundling issue was by using 'The Scotts' as an example, it was helped by 15 physical configurations during the tracking week on Travis Scott’s official website where consumers could purchase the song on CD, cassette or vinyl along with a digital download. The download would be sent to consumers upon initial purchase whereas the physical versions would arrive to the consumers in six or more weeks. Similarly, 'Stuck With You’ was on sale in a variety of physical/digital combination offerings, including copies autographed by Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber. Again consumers could purchase a physical copy with a digital download but whilst the download would be sent to consumers immediately the physical version would arrive at a later date.
in comparison to earlier periods it seemed that a strategy that combined meticulous play-listing, Youtube preparation and pure sales with bundles, could propel a song to go straight to the top.
*Billboard and Nielsen Music/MRC Data conducts audits on all sales reported with access to purchase-level detail
RANDOM TRIVIA
'Candle In The Wind' debuted with 3.446 million physical singles sold which is the most for any single.
'Candle In The Wind', ‘Shape of You’ and ‘God’s Plan’ are the only debut #1 songs to become the Year-End Number One Song. 'Candle In the Wind' appeared in the top 10 Year-End for both 1997 and 1998.
Aerosmith and The Jonas Brothers are the only groups to achieve a debut #1 single.
'Harlem Shake' is the only debut #1 that made a Top 10 year-end placement (2013) to not make a decade-end placement.
Drake is the only recording artist to have 2 consecutive debut #1 singles where the second single replaced the first at the top spot.
Ariana Grande has the most debut #1 singles (4) and she achieved them in an 18 month span and they are her only #1 songs.
‘Trollz' is the first debut #1 song so far to drop out the Top 20 the following week.
Figure G: A timeline to show how often debut #1s have appeared on the Hot 100 since 1995.
METHODOLOGY
I collected the chart positions of each debut #1 single from Billboard’s website, where they archive the positions and chart runs for every single commercially-released that charted. I then created a table and input these data values into a spreadsheet, found out their year-end placement and if applicable, their decade-end placements. I also researched who the parent company was for which the single was released under at the time of the single’s release. For example, Exhale by Whitney Houston was released under Arista in 1995 but the rights to the song ultimately lie with Sony now after they acquired the label back in 2004.
The spreadsheet was organised in rows where the singles were listed in chronological order when they hit #1. When a single stayed at #1, or remained in the Top 10, the cells which contain these chart positions were highlighted to easily identify them for further calculations and to aid in making correct calculations. To give a value to each single, the cumulative chart points a single achieved was calculated using an inverse points system, similar to one Billboard currently puts in place for their rankings lists. For example, a song at number 1 was awarded 100 points, then a song at number 2 was awarded 99 points….until finally a song at number 100 was awarded 1 point. Singles that were released from 2014 onwards were given an SPS weighting similar to what Billboard used recently for its decade-end lists. Billboard observed that singles that benefited from streaming tended to have unprecedented chart runs compared to the physical and digital periods. Therefore the chart points were given ⅔-SPS weighting compared to singles released previously. Billboard used this rule from the week of January 1st 2015 but since only one single debuted at number one in 2014 and the majority of its chart run was in 2015 the SPS weighting rule began in 2014 instead for this investigation.
Once the chart points for each single was determined analyses were carried out. I was interesting in seeing macro versus micro analyses. For example, I wanted to see whether a particular label was dominating in releasing #1 debuts overall or only in certain periods, or if it was easy to identify stronger or weaker markets to achieve a #1 debut. I was also interested seeing what the trends were like long-term for the different components that make up the Hot 100 formula: streaming, pure sales and radio. Billboard has only disclosed articles from 2002 onwards therefore information which is publically available to view online has only been used. As the Billboard Hot 100 formula changes with time to keep up with how the public consume music there are distinct periods which represent these changes. It was also interesting to see the relationships between pure sales and streaming as they are the most volatile components in the single’s formula. Therefore the data for all of these investigations has been categorised into the six periods which were mentioned in the background information above, to keep consistency. For most of the investigation, Cardigan and WAP have been included as certain parts only require first-week numbers. However, Figures 3, 5 and 6 will not incorporate the two aforementioned singles as they have only began their chart run and these figures require long term performance, of which most of the Period 6 singles have reached and any further chart run they have on the Hot 100 will most likely create no difference to the results.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Figure 1: A series of line graphs that show the first week total pure sales, total streams and audience impressions for every debut #1 single since 2003. The dotted lines categorise the individual periods mentioned previously from Period 2 to 6. Data is missing in Period 1 as sales and radio data for some singles is not publicly documented and in Period 2 and 3 the radio data is not publicly documented too. Left Axis: Sales Amount, Right Axis: Audience Impressions (Millions) and Streams (Millions).
As suggested in the background information above, the pure sales for singles in Period 2 were relatively weak on the whole selling less than 250,000 copies in their first week. Aside from the initial 65% drop from ‘This is the Night’ to ‘I Believe’ there is a slow rising trend where every year singles sales for debut #1s was increasing. This was probably helped by the incorporation of iTunes which aided contributing to the aggregation of physical and digital sales. As we move into Period 3 the pure sales, which more than likely come from digital sales at this point, begins to rise overall and it seems from a glance the singles are selling on average twice as many units as those in Period 2. There is a peak of almost 450,000 copies sold in 2011 with ‘Born This Way’ only closely matched by ‘This is the Night’ and ‘Not Afraid’. Period 4 has the most fluctuation of singles sales which is likely due to the artist’s individual circumstances as opposed to a specific trend - most of these releases were musical comebacks which might explain their high unit amounts. This period appears to be the strongest period for pure sales for debut #1s and this period seems to continues the upward trend seen since ‘I Believe’. However, from 2016 as we move from Period 4 to 5, singles sales begins to collapse and rapidly decrease with every following single. If we take the first single from Period 5 and 6, Can’t Stop the Feeling’ to ‘Highest In The Room’ showcases a drop of 87% in pure sales which shows that consumers were no longer interested, on the whole, making a purchase for a single. The relationship of pure sales in Period 6 looks favourable as there is a slight increasing trend of pure sales for a debut #1 release though just like in Period 3 and 4 it is still a volatile upward trend.
In Period 3, radio is extremely volatile. Debut artists such as Zayn or Bauer have relatively small audience impressions for their singles compared to Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Adele who as established artists would probably be able to secure radio deals to build up high airplay to create a high debut on the Hot 100. The highest airplay for a single’s release is in 2016 for Justin Timberlake who secured 83 million audience impressions during his release week. From then on radio during Period 5 also began a dramatic downward trend, Though it appears that ‘Nice for What’ and ‘7 Rings’ which are the second singles released from the same album of Drake and Ariana Grande has a spike in audience impressions compared to their lead debut #1 single. As mentioned above this was probably due to the singles being in constant rotation during their debut release week. Whilst Period 6 shows a slight increase in audience impressions there is again a downward trend of radio which suggests that radio has less importance for a song to hit number one compared to previous periods.
Streaming overall has no determining relationship with time. The incorporation of streaming, as a result of ‘Harlem Shake’ creating 103 million streams in 2013, seems to be relatively strong compared to sales or radio. Throughout the decade ‘Hello’ by Adele appears to be the only single with strong sales, radio and streaming numbers. In Period 5 there is a dramatic upward trend with streaming. If we compare ‘Shape of You’ (2017) to ‘God’s Plan’ (2018) in less than a year streaming for a debut single increased by 412% and then streaming maintained strong numbers throughout the remainder of Period 5. Drake and Ariana for example were able to garner more than 80 million streams for their singles ‘God’s Plan’ and ‘7 Rings’. In Period 6 there is no relationship with streaming as streams keep going up and down. Finally, just as it appeared there was a downward trend in for streaming in Period 6, Cardi B’s return single for WAP proved how strong streaming platforms are for the industry coming in with 93 million streams.
With Period 6 overall showing declining radio numbers, weaker streaming numbers and smaller pure sales numbers the singles market appears either in its weakest state ever or Period 6 had a less competitive market for singles compared to previous periods. This may be correlated with COVID-19 where consumers are going out less. Therefore consumption activities which requires passive radio audience impressions, passive playlisting in streaming and opportunities to purchase singles from retailers has also decreased.
Figure 2: A line graphs that shows the ratio of first week total streams: total pure sales for every debut #1 single since 2013 when streaming was incorporated into the Hot 100 formula. The vertical dotted lines categorise Periods 4, 5 and 6 mentioned previously. The horizontal dotted line shows a ratio of streams:sales being 1:1. X-axis is the single, Y-axis is the ratio value.
Figure 2 shows that the higher the ratio value the higher a debut #1 single was made up of streams compared to pure sales. For most of Period 4’s debut #1 singles, there seems to be less dependence for a song to be built up of streams compared to pure sales. Moving into Period 5, the ratio moves closer to 1 : 1 in 2018 with ‘This is America’ and ‘7 Rings’ having a 0.84 : 1 and 0.89 : 1 ratio, which suggests that these singles had almost equal built-up support of streaming and sales in their debut weeks. It was showing the power of streaming and its importance in determining the popularity of a song, moreso on a regular basis compared to just pure sales like in the past. At the beginning of Period 6 there is an upward trend where streams was outweighing pure sales for a song to debut at #1. This is evident by ‘Toosie Slide’ which has the highest ratio of 2.22 : 1 streams : pure sales, which might indicate a weaker pure sales market. Nevertheless the remainder of Period 6 decreases below the !:1 ratio line which shows that pure sales are still important, as well as streams, for a song to make a #1 debut. Again WAP has brought the closest 1 : 1 ratio since ‘Highest in the Room’.
Figure 3: A combination chart which is made up of lines that show the mean number of weeks a debut #1 single in each period lasted at number one, in the top 10 and on the Hot 100. There are also bar charts for each period that show the percentage a debut #1 single spent at number one / within the top 10 compared to the total charting weeks. Left axis = the raw number of weeks, Right axis = the percentage of total weeks at number 1 / total weeks in the top 10 compared to its total charting weeks.
The lines in Figure 3 follow similar patterns when it comes to a single’s average number of weeks held at number 1, in the Top 10 and in the Hot 100 for debut #1 singles. From 1995-1998 debut #1 singles on average stayed at number one for 6.2 weeks, in the Top 10 for 13.1 weeks and in the Hot 100 for 24.9 weeks. The 2003-2006 American Idol singles were much weaker. On the whole these songs stayed at #1 for just one week, stayed in the Top 10 for no more than 3 weeks on average and dropped out of the Hot 100 after 11.5 weeks. Debut #1 singles made a recovery and began increasing every Period from 2009-2012 to 2016-2019. In particular singles in the 2016-2019 period stayed in the Hot 100 on average for a record 35.44 weeks (or 8-9 months). However, songs remained for an almost similar amount of time in the Top 10 during Periods 2013-2016 and 2016-2019 at 17.40 and 18.44 weeks, respectively. Then the average weeks began to dramatically decline for singles in the 2019-2020 period. Songs that would previously remain on average at number one for 5.67 weeks would now only stay atop for their first week and on average drop out of the Top 10 after 3.5 weeks, or less than a month. This is 3.7 times less compared to the 2016-2019 Period. Again this indicates that the singles market is in a weaker position than ever and singles are less likely to be consumed with longevity.
On a percentage basis, a song’s reign at number one was strongest during the 1995-1998 period with it being 25% of its chart reign. This percentage amount then ranged between 7% - 15% in subsequent periods, probably attributed to the fact that in some periods they had longer living singles due to streaming. Nevertheless a song’s reign within the Top 10 had similar percentage amounts in 2016-2019 compared to 1995-1998 and the 2013-2016 period even surpassed it. Again the weaker periods are 2003-2006 and 2019-2020 where a song’s placement within the Top 10 would be relatively shorter lived. Figure 3 seems to show that hough songs on average may not spend many weeks at number one, they would remain within the Top 10 for a long period of the single’s chart run from 2009-2012 to 2016-2019.
Figure 4: A stacked bar chart that shows the proportion of debut #1 singles in every period which was released by the head label. Other includes Warner Music, Independent labels and labels before they were acquired such as Arista.
Figure 4 is showing that Sony was been the dominating label who was able to achieve debut #1s in the early periods during 1995-1998 and 2003-2006. From 2009-2012 Universal probably began to remodel their artist’s release strategies to also become a competing label able to achieve the same accomplishment seeing as 50% of releases were each from Universal and Sony. In subsequent periods the proportion of Sony’s releases decreased by almost half while artists in Universal accomplishing a debut #1 increased by 15%. Other labels such as Arista, Warner and Independent Labels, in yellow, with time have not been as prominent in releasing debut #1 singles from any artists in their roster. The only artists recently to achieve this is Ed Sheeran and Cardi B. The moving average line for each label also helps to follow the aforementioned trends: Sony’s artists have decreased with time whereas Universal rose in the 2009-2012 period and have remained relatively stable ever since. However, the line should be taken with a pinch of salt because of the limited number of data values available in each period. Only a few values would be required to completely skew and change the trendline.
Figure 5: A series of bar charts which show the total charting points of each debut #1 single every period. Each period is organised by colour to make them easily identifiable and the singles in each period are ordered from weakest to strongest by their charting points. (As of date: 21 August 2020 as period 6 data may slightly increase).
Figure 5 shows that singles released in Period 1 and Period 5 have the strongest chart runs and were more consumed than singles released in any other period; this can suggest that they were most likely the most competitive periods for labels to release their singles in too - in the strongest periods the singles market was in. 4 out of 9 songs from each of these periods have surpassed 2000 charting points, whereas only 1 song during the digital eras 2009-2012 and 2013-2016 were able to achieve the feat. 1 single in each period was also able to surpass the 3000 charting point mark. Period 2 and Period 6 are the weakest period for debut #1 singles with the majority of the songs unable to surpass 1000 charting points during their chart run. Again this shows that these periods are the weakest the singles market has been since 1995.
Interestingly, Periods 1 and 2 have the most consistency in their singles chart runs. At a glance 4 singles in Period 1 have similar chart points before the trend line increases with ‘I’ll Be Missing You’ and ‘Candle In The Wind’ which achieved almost twice as many chart points as the first 4 singles. The range in Periods 3, 4 and 5 tends to show one underperforming singles chart run and then one exceptional singles chart run so there is less singles release strategy and consumption here. With each subsequent period, the singles released per period tend to have stronger chart runs with singles reaching higher peaks in every period, until Period 6. With a weaker singles market in Period 6 it breaks the trend of subsequent eras having longer chart runs and higher charting points and thus makes the predictability for future singles charting points difficult to ascertain. Especially when ‘Trollz’ has the worst performing chart run of all time for debut #1 singles.
It seems that songs with more than 2000 charting points tend those that end up on the decade-end song of the decade list and only the most established artists appear to achieve this feat with acts such as Ed Sheeran (No. 3 2010s) to Elton John (No. 5 1990s). Disappointingly despite the increasing number of debut #1 singles released in 2020, none of the singles will probably chart high enough to earn a decade-end placement on the 2020s Songs of the Decade list, despite releases from pop titans Drake and Ariana Grande.
Figure 6: A bar graph that has ordered all the debut #1s by their charting points. The pink lines represent the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles. The blue dashed lines represent the asymptotes where the greatest rate of change occurs. The star represents an outlier.
Figure 6 combines the chart points for all debut #1 singles since 1995. It has produced a double sigmoid curve. Most singles comfortably sit between 1038 to 1976 points. ‘Shape of You’ is an outlier by 274 points (note: this is more than the total chart run points for ‘Trollz’) but even if it was discarded from the graph, the curve would remain the same because ‘Candle In the Wind’ would still appear an extreme data value. The singles from all the different periods are dispersed and so there is no dominant period of singles which remain in a specific part of the curve.
In the first curve the gradient increases and most singles sit within the 35th to 75th percentile saturation range with similar charting points. In the second sigmoid curve there is a more dramatic change and the gradient is much steeper showing debut #1 songs with longer chart runs are more an exception than common place and could have some manipulation in order to reach where they are at, as opposed to being exhaustive organically. In the second curve the saturation point only contains four singles before the two extreme values skyrocket the curve and are distant from the rest of the data points.
CONCLUSION
As demonstrated in the results and discussion section we are currently in the weakest period of the singles market ever, where debut number one singles are dropping out of the number one or top ten spots within a matter of weeks. For example, ‘Trollz’ dropped out of the Top 20 in its first week which is the biggest downward movement for a [debut] number one song ever, excluding holiday songs. This may be a reason why Billboard has had to keep restructuring the Hot 100 formula as this may ruin the credibility of Billboard and how number one songs are valued. It seems that debut number ones are becoming more commonplace and this has diluted the achievement of what a feat this used to be. Nowadays, the release strategies for these singles seem to prioritise first week numbers and then songs tend to not receive additional support thereafter unless you are a highly established and popular artist like Drake who will always have general public support.
As Period 6 does not follow the upward trend Periods 3, 4 and 5 created this also creates a level of uncertainty and unpredictability for industry experts to predict how music consumption activities may play out in the future, especially for debut number ones. It also makes it much more difficult for investors and executive teams to decide whether singles should be supported or not since from now on since we are living in an unprecedented time both in COVID-19 and with rapid changes in consumption activities. It should be noted that the data always shows the singles create ranges within each period, which is normal and the debut number ones charting points per period do not ever produce consistent results. A single’s success is made up of a series of different factors from initial release strategies, down-the-line discount or additional streaming strategies, label promotional support and just pure luck, where the general public clings to a song for no reason. As a result of this, there tends to be one overperforming single which the industry strives for from a financial and cultural viewpoint. However, because of its rarity it will be difficult to predict if another debut number one single will also have the type of success ‘Candle In the Wind’ or ‘Shape of You’ had in the industry; especially since Billboard and Nielsen are trying to prevent manipulative charting loopholes or tactics on a more regular basis. It will be interesting to see how strategies change to override Billboard’s enforcements to charting malpractices and to see if debut number ones will keep cropping up as much as they have done recently.
If I continued this investigation potential routes would be to look at comparing the component points for the #1 and #2 single for every debut number one and to see which of the 41 singles so far were the strongest and weakest in their first week. Also streaming encapsulates On-Demand, Youtube, Playlisting, Personal Radio etc so it would be interesting to get a breakdown of how debut #1 singles have performed in each streaming category and if a particular area of streaming is benefitting more than others, from a charting perspective.
